January 2003

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2002 Ag Receipts Rise 5% To A Record $4.03 Billion January 2003 Idaho Agricultural Outlook By Bill Loftus, University of Idaho For the second year in a row, Idaho's agricultural economy posted a new record for cash receipts, rising 5 percent overall from 2001. Farm and ranch cash receipts topped $4 billion in 2002, $183 million more than the previous year, according to University of Idaho agricultural economists. The report was prepared by Benjamin Eborn, Wilson Gray, Paul Patterson and R.G. Taylor. "These are the good old days for agricultural producers," said Taylor, assistant professor of agricultural economics at Moscow. The report is one of a series published annually by the UI Extension and Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology. The 2002 totals reflect projections of sales through Dec. 31. Other reports focus on prospects for individual livestock and crop sectors next year. The UI's January 2003 Idaho Agricultural Outlook is available in its entirety, with supporting tables and graphs, on the Web site of the UI Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, http://www.ag.uidaho.edu/outlooks. The report also tracked farm income, which includes both receipts and expenses. This year's performance showed agricultural interests' bottom line rose 11 percent to $1.28 billion. Both the 2002 result and 2001's $1.15 billion farm income total represent record highs. The rise in farm income reflects strong crop prices and production. Taylor said the strong showing also proves conclusively that Idaho's agricultural producers are not totally reliant on the federal dole. "Our government payments are a very small proportion of our revenues, especially compared to some Midwest states," he added. Government emergency payments to producers dropped from $161 million in 2001 to $39 million in 2002. Not all agricultural producers prospered this year, however. Taylor noted that potato, barley, sugarbeet and wheat growers made money from marketing their products this year. Potato receipts surged 61 percent to produce a record high. Compounding potato growers' good fortune, the 45 percent increase in the prices, was an 11 percent increase in production. Dry bean cash receipts rose 63 percent, reflecting a 25 percent rise in prices and 31 percent increase in production. Sugarbeet receipts were up 28 percent. Again, prices rose 12 percent, adding to the kick generated by a 15 percent production increase. Barley production and prices rose 7 percent each, buoyed by a sag in production nationwide that was the lowest recorded since 1937. Dairies and livestock producers suffered a reversal of fortune this year. Livestock revenues dropped to $1.82 billion, off 12 percent from the industry's record high of $2.06 billion. Cattle and calf producers saw the greatest percentage drop, a 14 percent downturn to $790 million from the $915 million in sales during 2001. Cattle revenues still exceeded the long-term average. Despite the economic shakeup, milk production remained Idaho's top agricultural commodity overall accounting for $923 million. That total represents a drop of nearly 11 percent from the 2001 record of $1.043 billion. Potatoes came in a close second, generating just shy of $900 million in receipts. The strong dairy and cattle performances during the previous year had made livestock the top-performing sector of Idaho's agricultural economy. Some livestock markets remained strong in comparison during 2002. Trout, swine, sheep, poultry and eggs nearly held their own, sliding a comparatively modest 1 percent. This year, favorable markets gave Idaho's crop producers the upper hand, Taylor said. The livestock declines, Taylor said, are "certainly offset by spuds, barley, sugarbeets and wheat." "This year, the teeter-totter that is the agricultural economy dipped on the livestock side and rose on the crops side," Taylor said. That's better than many years just past when both sides sagged under the price-deflating pressures of global surpluses. Idaho's farm receipts still, however, fall below the record set in 1974 when inflation is factored in, Taylor said. That record high followed a 30-year low in 1971. By 1977, prices had flamed out again, plummeting nearly to 1971 levels. The industry has yet to recover the financial ground lost then but the trend during the past three years shows a solid growth. The report also tracked farm income, which includes both receipts and expenses. This year's performance showed agricultural interests' bottom line rose 11 percent to $1.28 billion. Both the 2002 result and 2001's $1.15 billion farm income represent record highs. 54% More Beans Send Prices Down Great Northern, Garbanzos Exceptions January 2003 Idaho Agricultural Outlook By Marlene Fritz, University of Idaho Bean growers nationwide responded to healthy prices for their short 2001 crops by planting 34 percent more acres and producing altogether 54 percent more pounds of beans in 2002. As a result, with the exception of great northerns and garbanzos, prices for their 2002 crop have dropped significantly. But University of Idaho Extension economist Paul Patterson still expects the average Idaho price&emdash;a composite of the six market classes grown in Idaho&emdash;to exceed the five-year average. Writing in the UI's January 2003 Idaho Agricultural Outlook, Patterson projects the average Idaho price for the 2002-03 marketing year at $19 a hundredweight, compared with a five-year average of $18.40 and last year's price of $21.60. He anticipates a relatively quick settling into a narrow trading range for the remainder of the year, similar to 1994's pattern. For 2003-04, Patterson expects the average Idaho price to fall between $17 and $20 but most likely hover around $18. Gem State production should be just a hair under the five-year average of 1.90 million cwt., although it could swing as low as 1.78 million cwt. and as high as 2.07 million cwt. U.S. bean production reached an estimated 30.150 million cwt. in 2002, 8.6 percent higher than the five-year average. Idaho bean growers harvested 1.86 million cwt. and averaged 2,000-pound yields. According to Patterson, the 2002 crop of great northerns should see a $1 to $2 price improvement over last year's $18, prompted by a 26.2 percent drop in U.S. production and a 28.4 percent decrease in Idaho production. Even steeper declines in garbanzo production&emdash;off 45.8 percent nationally and 50 percent in Idaho&emdash;should push prices up $3 to $19, he says. Pinto prices&emdash;buried by 48.8 percent production increases nationally and 53.7 percent in Idaho&emdash;have fallen $11 from their $29-30 pre-harvest levels. Pinks and small reds have skidded $5 from $25 in the wake of U.S. production gains of 90 percent and 261 percent, respectively. An even heftier 298 percent increase in black beans has yanked prices back to $11-12, a third off their 2001 peak. And at $20, small whites have slipped below March's $24 price quote, even though 2002 domestic production was actually 15.4 percent lower than 2001's. By market class in 2002, Idaho produced 80.1 million pounds of pintos, 24.2 million pounds of small reds, 23.5 million pounds of pinks, 20.6 million pounds of garbanzos, 11.9 million pounds of navies, 7.6 million pounds of blacks, 6.3 million pounds of great northerns, 5.1 million pounds of kidneys, 4.0 million pounds of cranberries, 0.6 million pounds of small whites and 2.1 million pounds of other beans. Meanwhile, U.S. exports have been fairly stable at about 8.00 million cwt. a year&emdash;somewhat below the five-year average of 8.57 million cwt. "In spite of the strong dollar, the U.S. continues to compete effectively in most markets," Patterson says. Mexico, Haiti and the Dominican Republic are the biggest importers of pintos, while the United Kingdom, Canada and Italy buy most of the exported navy beans and Algeria, Turkey and France import great northerns. Annual per-capita consumption of dry beans in the U.S. grew impressively between 1985 and 1995&emdash;from 5.8 to 7.4 pounds&emdash;but has since leveled. "With relatively stable domestic utilization, exports are the crucial variable on the demand side and the key to prices," Patterson says. Bush Administration Proposes Steps To Restore Forest And Rangeland Health Interior Secretary Gale A. Norton, Agriculture Secretary Ann M. Veneman, and Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) Chairman James L. Connaughton met with President Bush on December 11, 2002, to discuss their efforts to restore forest and rangeland health and reduce the risks of catastrophic wildfires to communities and the environment as called for by the President's Healthy Forests Initiative. Following the meeting, they announced several common-sense proposed administrative actions to expedite badly needed forest and rangeland restoration activities that will reduce the risks that catastrophic wildfires pose to communities and the environment.  "We have reached an unprecedented level of agreement among federal, state and community leaders on how best to protect communities and the environment from devastating wildfires," said Agriculture Secretary Veneman. "The actions we are taking today will continue to build upon the President's Healthy Forests Initiative and strengthen our management tools and firefighting capabilities to improve forest health." Wildfires burned over 7.1 million acres of public and private lands last summer, an area larger than the states of Maryland and Rhode Island combined, causing tremendous social, environmental and economic damage. Twenty-one firefighters were killed battling these fires. Tens of thousands of people were evacuated from their homes, thousands of structures were destroyed and hundreds of millions of trees were destroyed. "This summer's fire season was a wake-up call to everyone who loves our public lands and wants to protect communities at risk: We face a crisis of forest and rangeland health of unprecedented proportions, where millions of acres of land desperately need more effective management to promote ecosystem restoration," said CEQ Chairman James L. Connaughton. "These common-sense steps will allow federal agencies to spend millions of dollars a year on environmental restoration and conservation rather than needless paperwork. The result will be safer communities, safer firefighters and healthier forest ecosystems." These unnaturally extreme fires are just one consequence of deteriorating forest and rangeland health that now affects more than 190 million acres of public land, an area twice the size of California. An unprecedented epidemic of insects and forest disease is also ravaging many forests, including southeastern forests such as the Oconee National Forest in Georgia and the Cherokee National Forest in Tennessee. Some of the worst pine beetle epidemics on record are killing tens of thousands of acres of trees in southern and western forests. Excessive analysis, ineffective public involvement and management inefficiencies trap land managers in costly procedural quagmires, where a single project can take years to move forward and where planning costs alone can exceed $1 million. Even routine forest health projects often proceed very slowly. In the meantime, communities, wildlife habitat and forests suffer. Fires and insect infestations that begin on public lands often spread to private lands as well, causing significant property damage. "We are trying to expedite our processes in order to prevent catastrophic damage to our forests and rangelands by returning these lands to good health, which will protect lives, property and homes," said Interior Secretary Gale Norton. "Needless delay closes the narrow window of opportunity we have to do essential fuels treatment work between fire seasons. Forest ecologists and the land managers know the truth: We cannot afford to wait any longer. If we fail to act, we will continue to see millions of acres of forests go up in smoke every year." Under the Healthy Forests Initiative, the Departments of Agriculture and the Interior and the Council on Environmental Quality are proposing several sensible steps to improve the regulatory processes guiding forest health activities and ensure more timely decisions. They include: 1. More Fuels Treatment and Restoration Projects to Improve Forest Health The Departments of Agriculture and the Interior are proposing new procedures that will enable priority fuels treatment (thinning) and forest restoration (reseeding and planting) projects to proceed quickly. Fuels treatment projects under this procedure must be identified by federal agencies working in collaboration with state, local and tribal governments and interested persons. Based on the agencies' experience with hundreds of these projects where environmental analysis showed no significant environmental impact, the proposed procedures will determine that similar new projects do not result in significant impacts&emdash;eliminating the need for individual analyses and lengthier documentation. During the prior Administration, the Fish and Wildlife Service established a similar procedure for fuels treatment projects in wildlife refuges, which has worked effectively to promote ecosystem health. These hazardous fuels reduction and ecosystem rehabilitation projects will help restore forest and rangeland ecosystems, benefiting many species and their habitat. These procedures will be published in the Federal Register for public notice and comment. 2. Amend Rules for Project Appeals to Hasten Process Agriculture and Interior will propose to amend their administrative appeal rules to 1) expedite appeals of forest health projects and 2) encourage early and more meaningful public participation. The Interior proposal would allow forest health projects to move ahead without an administrative stay and require fuels treatment appeals to be heard by the Office of Hearings and Appeals as quickly as possible and decided within 60 days. These improvements will reduce complex procedures, provide more timely decisions and provide greater flexibility in emergency situations. 3. Improve Endangered Species Act Process to Expedite Decisions The Departments of Interior and Commerce are jointly releasing two guidance documents to their staff that will improve the process for reviewing fuels treatment projects under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). The first document encourages the use of several streamlining techniques to expedite the consultation process, such as carrying out integrated regional planning for fuels treatment projects. The second document clarifies that ESA evaluations should consider the long-term environmental benefits of fuels treatment projects, as well as the potential for adverse effects, and that projects with net benefits should be expedited. Both documents will facilitate the timely completion of fuels treatment projects, while providing protection for wildlife and restoring habitat. 4. Improved and Clearer Process on Environmental Assessments  CEQ will issue guidance to Interior and Agriculture establishing an improved and focused process for conducting environmental assessments under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) for healthy forest projects. Agriculture and Interior will send senior advisors to work with the field offices to immediately implement the new process. The two agencies will undertake at least 10 pilot projects to establish the effectiveness of these expedited procedures. Under NEPA, CEQ regulations provide for concise environmental assessments of potentially significant effects of federal projects, which can be better focused to exclude unnecessary documentation. These proposals will help land managers work more effectively with the public and improve their ability to protect communities and the environment from devastating wildfires. President Bush announced the Healthy Forests Initiative in August, directing the Departments of Agriculture and the Interior and the Council on Environmental Quality to develop administrative and legislative measures that will help reduce the threat of catastrophic wildfire to America's forests and rangelands. The initiative builds on a historic ten-year plan for reducing wildfire risks adopted last spring by federal agencies in cooperation with western and southern governors, county commissioners, state foresters and tribal officials. Farmers Still Challenged By Base & Yield Update Decision From Tom Platt, WSU Cooperative Extension The 2002 Farm Bill provides farm owners a one time opportunity to update farm program Base acres and yields used to calculate program benefits. Direct Payments are available for producers of wheat, corn, barley, grain, sorghum, oats, upland cotton, and, with this new farm bill, also oilseeds and peanuts. Counter Cyclical payments are new with the 2002 Farm Bill and are triggered when crop prices fall below a certain level. Farm owners have a one time option of updating their Base for Direct Payments and their Base and Yield for Counter Cyclical Payments. Farm owners have until April 1, 2003 to make this update. According to Tom Platt of Washington State University Cooperative Extension in Davenport, the complexity of deciding whether or not to update Base and Yield increases the more the farm's cropping practices and production have changed over the years since Base and Yield were established. Platt continues that USDA Farm Service Agency and Texas A & M University partnered in developing a computer program to help farmer's analyze this decision. It is a World Wide Web based program that must be accessed and used via the Internet; it cannot be downloaded to run "stand alone" on your personal computer. It is called BYA, Base and Yield Update Option Analyzer, and is available on Texas A& M's web site, http://www.afpc.tamu.edu/. In addition, detailed information on the update options is available from WSU at http://farm.mngt.wsu.edu/. Click 2002 Farm Bill Facts. Platt says that for those familiar with the Web, inputting data into BYA is relatively simple, but that interpreting the output is relatively complex. Consequently, WSU Cooperative Extension in Lincoln and Adams Counties continues to offer computer workshops to help farmers understand how to use and interpret BYA. Workshops will be held from 7:00 p.m. to 9:30 p.m. approximately twice a month in Davenport and Ritzville. Seating is limited, and farmers wishing to attend need to reserve a computer by calling WSU Cooperative Extension in Ritzville, 509/659-3212 or Davenport, 509/725-4171 by 4 p.m. of the day of the workshop. In Davenport, workshops are scheduled for December 30, January 9 and 22, and February 4 and 24. In Ritzville, workshops are scheduled for December 19, January 2, and February 4. Cooperative Extension programs are available without discrimination. For accommodation of special needs, or for more information, call Tom Platt at 509/725-4171. Scientists Complete Advanced Draft Sequence Of Rice Genome Officials at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Department of Energy (DOE) announced recently completion of an advanced draft, or blueprint, of the rice genome. This milestone concludes the second phase of the rice-sequencing effort initiated under the coordination of the Japanese Rice Genome Program to improve the quality and increase yields of a staple consumed by over half of mankind. Earlier today a similar ceremony was held in Japan. "Decoding the rice genome is an important scientific achievement that can lead to improved nutrition and aid in efforts to eliminate hunger throughout the world," said Agriculture Secretary Ann M. Veneman. "This scientific partnership between the United States and Japan continues to demonstrate our commitment to advancing research and science." Launched in 1998, the project is a multinational effort to map the rice genome's 12 chromosomes. USDA, NSF and DOE provided a total of $14.4 million in U.S. funds. In addition to the United States and Japan, participating countries include Brazil, China, France, India, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. European Union members are participating as well. The United States research is based at the Institute for Genomic Research in Maryland, Clemson University in South Carolina, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory in New York, Washington University in Missouri and the University of Arizona. Overall, the U.S. rice genome effort is part of the national plant genome initiative to understand the structure and function of genes in plants important to agriculture, the environment and health. According to NSF Director Rita R. Colwell, "The rice genome's sequence is crucial to our scientific understanding of the staples of life. With this data we open new doors at all levels of research: the universities, private industry and government." Data derived from the project will benefit many research areas because rice shares common sets of genes with most of the world's major economic crops including corn, wheat, rye, barley, sorghum, sugarcane and millet. "Sequencing the rice genome is a wonderful example of global partnerships that can define future efforts in science research," said Raymond L. Orbach, Director of DOE's Office of Science. "This accomplishment in plant genomics can open global opportunities for new uses of plants in energy and environmental resource management."

West Nile Virus Found In WA Horse By Jean Smith, WSU Cooperative Extension You've probably heard that the State Department of Agriculture has confirmed that a 14-year old horse in Island County was diagnosed with West Nile virus. This horse is the first horse known to become infected with the virus in Washington. The horse became ill in October and is recovering. The horse received the two-shot vaccine Sept. 4 and Oct. 2 and became ill 10 days later, indicating that it was bit by a mosquito before immunity was established. According to Robert Mead, state veterinarian, now is a good time to have your horses vaccinated because the vaccine requires two doses three to six weeks apart, and immunity will not be achieved until five weeks after the second shot. An annual booster should be given just prior to the start of the mosquito season in your area. Alfalfa Variety Trial Results By Tim Woodward, WSU Cooperative Extension The results of the WA State Hay Growers Association/WSU variety trials are now available. Five alfalfa trials were harvested for yield in 2002. Two trials near Othello and three trials near Pasco were conducted by the WSHGA and WSU. Due to a shorter growing season, the Othello trials were cut four times while the Pasco trials were cut five. Each trial is arranged in a randomized complete block design with four replications. Entries are made up of both experimental and commercial varieties. Forage Yields for each harvest in 2002, the total yield in 2002, and the total for all years of the current trials to date are reported. Also available is a summary of yields (reported in % of mean for easier comparisons) over nine trials for varieties currently on the market. Information on dormancy and disease/insect resistance for the same varieties is included. Copies of the results can be obtained from the Pasco Extension Office at 509/545-3511. Video Captures Direct Seed Drill Demonstration By Terence L. Day, Washington State University A 90-minute digital video that captured highlights of the June 25, 2002 Direct Seed Drill Demonstration near Genesee, Idaho, is now available for loan or purchase in either VHS or DVD format. Roger Veseth, extension conservation tillage specialist for Washington State University and University of Idaho, said 11direct seed drills were featured in the demonstration. Grower owners described each drill's capabilities and limitations and reported their experiences on drill utilization in their direct seed system. Following each drill description, there is video footage of the drill seeding peas through standing winter wheat stubble from a 100 bushel per acre crop on slopes up to 40 percent. Direct seed drills featured in the demonstration include: AgPro, Bourgault, Case-IH Concord, Cross Slot, Flexi-Coil 8100, Great Plains, Horsch, John Deere 1860, John Deere 455 behind a fertilizer shank implement, Krause, and Palouse MV 360. The drill demonstration was initiated by a group of Palouse area growers and developed in cooperation with the Latah and Nez Perce Soil and Water Conservation Districts, with support from a number of sponsoring and cooperating groups. The video was jointly produced by Washington State University Cooperative Extension and University of Idaho Cooperative Extension System in cooperation with conservation districts. An order form for loan or purchase of the video tapes or DVDs is available on the Web at http://pnwsteep.wsu.edu/updatenewsletter. Click on the November 2002 Issue of the PNW Conservation Tillage Update newsletter. The video costs $17, the DVD is $20. You can also request the videos or additional information from: Debbie Marsh, WSU Cooperative Extension, 509-335-2915, fax 509-335-1758, or e-mail to marshdj@wsu.edu. Mailing address is: Crop and Soil Sciences Dept., P.O. Box 646420, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-6420. Feed Barley Prices Should Stay Above Average For The Next 2 Marketing Years January 2003 Idaho Agricultural Outlook By Marlene Fritz, University of Idaho Declining feed grain stocks nationwide and worldwide should bring Idaho feed barley growers an average farm-level price of $4.90 a bushel for their 2002 crop&emdash;the highest average since 1996. According to Paul Patterson, University of Idaho Extension economist, feed barley should continue to trade between $4.50 and $5.50 for the rest of the 2002-03 marketing year, which ends in June. Next year's crop is likely to be a little bit bigger and prices are likely to be a little bit smaller, he says. Patterson projects that 2003 feed barley will bring about $4.40 a bushel&emdash;still higher than the five-year average of $4.15. Writing in the January 2003 Idaho Agricultural Outlook, Patterson notes that world coarse grain supplies are at historically low levels and that projected ending stocks of 144.4 million metric tons are 27.5 percent below the five-year average. They are also below the 1995 levels that triggered record high feed grain prices. Patterson describes current fundamentals for world coarse grains as "very bullish" and says they will "likely mean very volatile prices." In the U.S., feed grain production for the 2002-03 marketing year was off 6.2 percent from the previous year. By June, the 245.2 MMT domestic crop will leave ending stocks of just 24.8 MMT&emdash;down 45 percent from June 2002. The anticipated stocks-to-use ratio is a very tight 11.6 percent&emdash;9.2 percentage points less than the previous year and 8 percentage points below the five-year average. According to Patterson, exports of U.S. feed grains continue to be handicapped by a strong U.S. dollar and an increasingly competitive world market. For 2002-03, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects exports of 55 MMT, almost identical to the previous year's 54.7 MMT. Exports of corn should increase by 11 million bushels while those of feed barley should fall by 7 million bushels. That would leave feed barley exports at 20 million bushels&emdash;38 million bushels lower than two years ago. Patterson attributes much of the drop to increased competition from European Union countries and slightly lower demand. Although corn dominates U.S. feed grains, accounting for 92 percent of all domestic production, feed barley is Idaho's heavyweight. But feed barley acreage is slipping in the Gem State, with two-thirds of Idaho barley acreage now planted to malting varieties. Patterson thinks that Idaho growers will plant around 755,000 acres of barley next year, 25,000 more than in 2002. They should harvest 735,000 acres, compared with 710,000 in 2002 and a five-year average of 722,000. With drought holding back yields to a slightly below-average 76 bushels per acre, that should bring 2003 production to 55.86 million bushels. That compares with 53.96 million bushels in 2002 and a five-year average of 55.62 million bushels. Even if 2003 production falls to 51.80 million&emdash;the low end of Patterson's projected range&emdash;he expects feed barley prices to drop from current levels, "mostly because I expect a larger corn crop that will effectively cap the feed barley price." Producers can find planning price projections for Idaho commodities on the homepage of the UI Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology : http://www.ag.uidaho.edu/aers and all USDA reports, including the March 31 Prospective Plantings Report, at Cornell University's Mann Library: http://www.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/usda.html. The UI's January 2003 Idaho Agricultural Outlook is also available in its entirety, with supporting tables and graphs, at http://www.ag.uidaho.edu/outlooks. Beef Prospects Weigh In On Positive Side January 2003 Idaho Agricultural Outlook By Marlene Fritz, University of Idaho Previously cinched back by oversupplies, beef prices now appear to be "poised for a rebound" in 2003, says University of Idaho Extension economist C. Wilson Gray. In the UI's January 2003 Idaho Agricultural Outlook, Gray says commercial beef production is expected to drop 2.9 percent from this year's record high 27 billion pounds. Forecasters say it should drop again&emdash;by 1.8 percent&emdash;in 2004. In addition, consumer demand during the first three-quarters of 2002 was 1 percent higher than a year ago as economically stressed and war-worried consumers return to high-gratification comfort foods and more traditional at-home meals. Gray says studies by the University of Minnesota's Food Industry Trade Center suggest that less-trusting consumers are choosing fresh, produce, dairy and meats over prepackaged foods that could have been altered at the plant. According to Gray, fed cattle prices in 2003 could be as much as 8 to 11 percent higher over matching quarters in 2002. He projects average prices for Pacific Northwest cattle at $76.77 per hundredweight in the first quarter, $73.76 in the second quarter, $68.56 in the third quarter and $71.04 in the fourth quarter. With slaughter levels down and with dressed steer weights shedding the 30 extra pounds they had been carrying for the first three-quarters of 2002, beef prices are already responding to prospects of lower supplies. "November and December are the first months in 2002 that cattle feeders made money," Gray says. Calf and yearling prices should begin pulling ahead of year-ago prices by the second quarter. Steers in the 400- to 500-pound range should average $95.88, $98.47, $93.57 and $91.71 as the quarters progress, and those in the 700- to 800-pound range should average $80.34, $80.86, $80.80 and $80.09, respectively, Gray says. Because low milk prices are sending so many dairy cows to market, cull cow prices "may not participate as fully" in the rebound as other categories, says Gray. Cull values have been $5 to $8 per cwt. under year-ago levels since last summer and milk prices aren't expected to recover until the second half of 2003. According to Gray, "trends and numbers should generally be supportive of cattle prices in 2003, but that can change." Among the potential threats: higher retail prices could cause cash-strapped consumers to shift preferences away from beef, continuing drought could heat up feed grain prices and shrivel calf prices, and unexpected restoration of poultry exports to Russia could encourage U.S. poultry producers to ramp-up production. Currently, however, both pork and poultry production&emdash;weighed down by oversupplies&emdash;are forecast to drop in 2003. Cowboy Logic vs Sierra Club Logic There is no arguing with this cowboy logic. A few years ago, the Sierra Club and the U.S. Forest Service were presenting an alternative to Wyoming ranchers for controlling the coyote population. It seems that after years of the ranchers using the tried and true methods of shooting and/or trapping the predator, the tree-huggers had a "more humane" solution. What they proposed was for the animals to be captured alive, the males castrated and let loose again and the population would be controlled. This was ACTUALLY proposed to the Wyoming Wool and Sheep Grower's Association by the Sierra Club and the USFS . All of the ranchers thought about this amazing idea for a couple of minutes. Finally, an old boy in the back stood up, tipped his hat back and said, "Son, I don't think you understand the problem. Those coyotes ain't *#/!!~(molesting) our sheep&emdash;they're eatin' 'em." USDA, China Sign Protocol On Cooperation In Ag Science & Tech. Agriculture Secretary Ann M. Veneman and China's Minister of Science and Technology Xu Guanhua recently signed a Protocol on Cooperation in Agriculture Science and Technology.  "Cooperation in science and research benefits agriculture in both our countries and  reinforces the central role of science in the regulatory system," Veneman said.  "Consistent, science-based regulatory systems will strengthen the U.S.-China agricultural trade relationship, reduce trade obstacles and help resolve outstanding issues." During her visit to China in July, Veneman met with Minister Xu on a range of agricultural trade and cooperation issues, and each confirmed their interest in finalizing the protocol. The protocol was developed in discussions with Chinese officials led by Agriculture Under Secretary for Research, Education and Economics Dr. Joseph Jen.  As directed by the Secretary, Jen has been reviewing areas of cooperation in agricultural research between the United States and China from a scientific viewpoint and leading USDA's efforts to expand cooperation in science and research.  The protocol will encourage collaborative research in such important areas as agricultural biotechnology and the agricultural environment. Other areas of scientific cooperation specifically cited in the protocol include food safety, dairy production, processing of agricultural products and water-saving agricultural technology. The two countries agreed to form a Joint Working Group to facilitate and review cooperation under the protocol. "This protocol will build on the U.S.-China cooperative relationship in research," said Veneman. "For 25 years, we have worked cooperatively with China on agricultural science and technology issues. More than 1,400 scientists and officials from our governments, universities and the private sector have been part of these efforts. Together, our scientists and experts are advancing some of the most promising areas in agriculture." The protocol operates in addition to previously negotiated and ongoing USDA agreements with China, including the Nov. 5, 2002 Memorandum of Cooperation between USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service and its Chinese counterpart organization, the Department for Supervision on Animal and Plant Quarantine. China's Ministry of Science and Technology sets broad research and development priorities, funds research programs of other ministries and provides oversight to public research in China.  A copy of the protocol is available at : http://www.fas.usda.gov/icd/rsed/china/mostprotocol.html. U.S. Files WTO Case On Monopolistic Canadian Wheat Board U.S. Trade Representative Robert B. Zoellick announced recently that the United States will file a case against Canada in the World Trade Organization (WTO) over the wheat trading practices of the monopolistic Canadian Wheat Board (CWB).   In addition, the United States is challenging as unfair and burdensome Canada's requirements to segregate imported grain in the Canadian grain handling system, along with Canada's discriminatory policy that affects U.S. grain access to Canada's rail transportation system. This WTO case continues the Administration's aggressive pursuit of ensuring a fair trading system for American farmers. "The Canadian Wheat Board is a monopoly, and its special benefits and privileges put American wheat farmers at a disadvantage and undermine the integrity of the international trading system," Zoellick said. "American wheat farmers are the most competitive in the world. This Administration is committed to opening markets around the world and to fighting aggressively to see that American farmers are treated fairly." "The U.S. WTO proposal calls for the elimination of the monopoly powers of state trade enterprises such as the Canadian Wheat Board," said Agriculture Secretary Ann M. Veneman. "The action today highlights this Administration's commitment to ensuring a fair and open market for U.S. wheat farmers."Under WTO rules, the first step in a WTO dispute is for both parties to hold formal meetings. The United States will ask for consultations with the Canadians on Dec. 17, 2002, to discuss whether the CWB abides by global trade rules for state trading enterprises. In addition, the US will seek to end Canada's discriminatory policies of segregating wheat and on access to the Canadian rail transportation systems. On Feb. 15, 2002, Zoellick released an Affirmative Finding after an investigation under section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. In the Finding, Zoellick described the multiple avenues USTR would take to seek relief for American wheat farmers from the unfair trading practices of the CWB, a government state trading enterprise. In April 2001, U.S. Chief Agriculture Negotiator Allen F. Johnson went to North Dakota to hear directly from wheat farmers on the CWB's unfair competition. There are four prongs to the February plan, which the Administration is pursuing aggressively. First, by requesting consultations, USTR is initiating dispute settlement proceedings against the CWB and the Canadian government in the WTO. The consultation process is intended to encourage countries to settle disputes. Canada has 30 days to agree to consult with the United States. If U.S. concerns are not addressed through consultations, the United States can ask the WTO to form a dispute settlement panel. Second, the Administration committed to work with the U.S. industry to examine the possibility of filing antidumping and countervailing duty petitions. The North Dakota Wheat Commission filed petitions on Sept. 13, 2002, and the Department of Commerce initiated antidumping and countervailing duty investigations on Oct. 23, 2002.  Third, USTR indicated it would work to identify impediments to U.S. wheat entering Canada. The specific part of the U.S. WTO case regarding Canada's segregation and rail transportation systems for grain is a direct result of that investigation. Fourth, the U.S. committed to seek reform in global trade negotiations in the WTO agriculture negotiations. The United States has aggressively pursued permanent reform of monopolistic export state trading enterprises, such as the CWB. The agriculture negotiations are part of the Doha Development Agenda that was launched in November 2001. The United States successfully put export competition, including reform of state trading enterprises, as the first agenda item for the agriculture negotiations last June. At that time, the United States proposed eliminating export monopolies which would allow any producer, distributor, or processor to export agricultural products. The United States also proposed ending special financial privileges which are granted to state traders and expanding their WTO transparency obligations. In subsequent meetings of the WTO agriculture negotiations, the United States continues to build a coalition of other WTO member countries who support this position. The North Dakota Wheat Commission and the broader U.S. wheat industry support the Administration's decision to file a WTO case on the wheat trading practices of the CWB. Church Bulletin Blooper "Eight new choir robes are currently needed, due to the addition of several new members and to the deterioration of some older ones."

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